Project Articles

Model SIM Exploration 2

Model SIM Real World Time Series Exploration

What do Model SIM macro economic indicators and consumer agent approval figures show when integrating real-world stimulus (total managed expenditure) time-series data?

Parameters

Incorporate real-word total managed expenditure (spending) time-series data as ModelSIM government agent stimulus for producer agents.

Agent Population:

  • Initial Governments = 1
  • Initial Consumer Households = 110
  • Initial Producer Households = 100
  1. Number of model iterations: [Number of periods in expenditure time-series]
  2. Government agent stimulus: [Expenditure for the time-series period] Monetary units
  3. Consumer agent tax rate: 37%
  4. Consumption function:

    1. Proportion of disposable income: 60%
    2. Proportion of (agent wealth) at the opening of the period (iteration): 40%
  5. Renewable energy sources compound growth: 2%

Expenditure Data Source

Region: United States Of America (US)

Total managed expenditure (quarterly) data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Government total expenditures [W068RCQ027SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W068RCQ027SBEA, April 12, 2019.

Outcomes

Visualisations by Region
United States Of America

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Outcome 1

Compute Model SIM national income, consumption and disposable income from real world government expenditure (stimulus).

Outcome 2

In every year, each producer agent (100 in total) will receive an equal share of real world government expenditure (stimulus). Each producer will subsequently employ (by random choice) one of the 110 consumer agents. A producer agent will check to see if the consumer agent is currently unemployed (has not been previously employed by another producer agent), else the random selection is repeated.

Consumer agent (rating) approval, disapproval or ambivalence of the Government agent will depend on individual wealth (cash equity) at the end of each model iteration. A consumer agent will record an ‘approval’ rating if it has achieved a new wealth ‘high’ at the end of the current iteration. ‘Ambivalence’ is recorded if the agent does not achieve a new wealth ‘high’, but on communicating with another random consumer agent, discovers that its wealth is greater than that of the other consumer agent. ‘Disapproval’ is recorded when a consumer agent does not achieve a new wealth ‘high’ and on communicating with another random consumer agent, discovers that its own wealth is either less than or equal to that of the other consumer agent.